Panel discussion: New Zealand trade and exports in a volatile world
MC: Rowena Duncum, NZME Rural Lead Journalist
Thomas Macdonald, Chief Operating Officer, Spring Sheep Milk Co.
Tim Mackle, Chief Supply Chain Officer, Zespri
Hamish Marr, Special Agricultural Trade Envoy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs & Trade
Richard Allen, President, Global Ingredients. Fonterra
Suzannah Jessep, Chief Executive, Asia New Zealand Foundation
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At the Primary Industries Summit 2025, a powerhouse panel of industry leaders came together to unpack New Zealand’s role in a complex global trade landscape – showing that our trade future depends on much more than just the products we grow or make. It’s about building a strong reputation, forging smart partnerships, and mastering the art of adapting to fast-moving markets.
More Than Just Good Product: The Evolving Conversation Around NZ Exports
New Zealand has long prided itself on being a source of high-integrity, quality agricultural products, and that still rings true. Hamish Marr, the Special Agricultural Trade Envoy, highlighted that while our reputation for quality gets us in the door, it’s our commitment to sustainability that seals the deal. Global customers and governments are hungry for the “how” – how we farm, how we manage our unique pastoral systems, and how we uphold our environmental values. This isn’t just a nice-to-have; it’s becoming the universal currency of trade.
But the ride isn’t without its bumps. Suzannah Jessep, Chief Executive of the Asia New Zealand Foundation, pointed to some significant headwinds on the horizon. Think AI impacting traditional labour markets, ageing populations potentially dampening demand, and a rising tide of protectionism and industrial policy across the globe. For an island nation like New Zealand, simply changing export sectors isn’t an option. Our geographic isolation means our reputation for product safety, security, and trade conduct is more critical than ever.
Thomas Macdonald, COO of Spring Sheep Milk Co., painted a vivid picture of the market’s growing segmentation: a drive for premiumisation at one end and a ruthless race to the bottom on cost at the other. This forces exporters to make tough calls about where their products land. As Richard Allen, President of Global Ingredients at Fonterra, put it, there’s a growing “chasm” between high-value and lower-cost ingredients. He also flagged the rise of food security nationalism, with countries like China and those in the Middle East investing heavily in their own domestic production – a direct challenge to traditional export models.
Charting the Course: Export Strategies and Global Partners
So, how are New Zealand exporters navigating these choppy waters? It’s a delicate dance between nurturing existing relationships and fearlessly forging new ones. Zespri’s Tim Mackle noted that while diversification is a good thing, setting up new networks doesn’t come cheap. The trick is balancing new market entry costs with leveraging the power of established networks. Suzannah likened the approach to rock climbing: “It’s a bit like rock climbing, maintaining three points of contact, where you have your very strong market, but you’re going to need other markets to stabilise and continue to build.”
“It’s a bit like rock climbing, maintaining three points of contact, where you have your very strong market, but you’re going to need other markets to stabilise and continue to build.”
Suzannah Jessep, Chief Executive, Asia New Zealand Foundation
China remains a titan in the room. Zespri, for instance, has locked in commitments with key Chinese customers to double their volume over the coming years whilst pushing deeper into existing cities and eyeing expansion into others. Fonterra sees immense potential for its premium “tasting good” products such as cheese and butter as China’s middle class continues its explosive growth from 300 million toward 600 million people. But agility is key: Spring Sheep Milk Co. even found a surprising growth engine in China’s pet nutrition market as human birth rates shifted!
Beyond the Chinese powerhouse, other regions are shining bright:
- USA and EU: Richard sees these as prime hunting grounds for advanced ingredients in high-value sectors like medical and sports nutrition.
- Southeast Asia: Particularly Indonesia, this region offers substantial opportunities for affordable, everyday nutritional products as its GDP continues to climb.
- Middle East and Africa: These markets are emerging as long-term frontiers, promising significant opportunities for the right product-price combinations.
- India: Suzannah highlighted the region as a core future demand shaper. India, despite its protective barriers, holds massive potential; the Maharashtra state alone is larger than Japan by population, for example.
The prospect of a trade agreement with India was a hot topic. It’s a “worthy ambition,” according to Jessep, and the “timing is right.” But don’t expect it to be easy. India’s powerful domestic dairy lobby poses a significant hurdle, as Richard noted, with co-ops boasting over 2.5 million farmers compared with around 8500 in the largest NZ co-ops. In the fruit sector, Zespri faces a hefty 33% tariff. While any access would be a win, a “high quality dairy outcome” would be a huge achievement.
The conversation also touched on the broader give-and-take of such a deal: India will likely seek New Zealand’s support in international forums and increased immigration access for its young, talented population.
Beyond the Horizon: Emissions and the Paris Agreement on NZ Exports
New Zealand’s unwavering focus on sustainability highlights a key reality: the success of our export future depends heavily on our credibility in reducing emissions with the Paris Agreement forming part of that international framework.
Hamish invited the audience to turn regulation into an opportunity to showcase New Zealand’s leading emissions profile and share data proving our efficiencies.
As the world increasingly scrutinises environmental footprints, our ability to demonstrate genuine leadership on climate goals will become a powerful competitive advantage. It’s not just about what we sell; it’s about the entire story behind it, making environmental stewardship an integral part of our nation’s “right to win” on the global stage.
Here’s the upshot: it’s not just about what we grow or produce anymore — it’s also about who we partner with, and how well we tell the New Zealand story of quality, integrity, and sustainability in an ever-competitive global market.
